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  Tackling Africa's debt crisis

  by Dianna Games on November 7, 2025

  Debt relief is high on the agenda in South Africa's G2-presidency as it uses its hosting of the global forum to champion a more inclusive global system. In this regard, it established the G20 Africa Expert Panel to address Africa's debt crisis, among other issues, proposing solutions such as reforming global financial structures, enhancing local currency bond markets, and boosting domestic resource mobilisation. The expert panel, led by former South African finance minister Trevor Manuel, emphasises a shift from aid to investment-driven growth, advocating reforms that lower capital costs for African nations and increase their agency in development. The panel also counts among its 25 members African Development Bank Vice president and Chief Economist Kevin Urama, MIT Professor Esther Duflo, former World Bank Chief Economist François Bourguignon, and UN Economic Commission for Africa Chief Economist Hanan Morsy. The South African government said at the end of 2024, when the Panel was established, that African countries would pay close to $89bn in external debt service alone, with 20 low-income countries currently at risk of debt distress. More than half of Africa's 1.3 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest payments than on social issues such as health, education, and infrastructure. Manuel highlights the fact that the lack of fiscal space for countries is holding back development. The issue of debt is certainly not new to the G20. In 2022, it launched the Common Framework for Debt Treatments, an initiative launched to help low-income countries with unsustainable debt. This aimed to provide a structured process for coordinating official creditors and included private sector participation to restore debt sustainability through case-by-case debt treatments. The initiative came in the wake of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, launched in 2020 to help the poorest countries to mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. This expired in December 2021. However, the new initiative was criticised for being too slow and inefficient. Only four countries (Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia), applied for debt treatment under its conditions but the results were unimpressive. Zambia, for example, requested debt treatment in February 2021 but was only able to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with its bilateral creditors in April 2024. Others were faster but still experienced delays. Rising debt Africa's debt has risen exponentially since the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiatives of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which offered significant relief and sharply reversed the debt-to GDP ratio. However, since 2012, debt levels have risen rapidly even among those that were beneficiaries of the HIPC programme. The total external debt stock of Sub-Saharan Africa grew from $425.8 billion in 2012 to $815.7 billion in 2021. As of 2024, Africa's total external debt stock was projected to be about $1.17 trillion, while the total public debt (domestic and external) was estimated to be approximately $1.86 trillion. Africa's debt-to-GDP ratio has also worsened since 2012, with the median public debt-to-GDP ratio nearly doubling from 28.8% in 2012 to approximately 59.1% in 2022 and stabilizing at around 68.6% in 2023 and 65% in 2024, according to Afreximbank. Its recent report, State of Play of Debt Burden in Africa 2024, says more than half of African countries are vulnerable. Africa's external debt, dominated by long-term debt on the back largely of infrastructure financing, is highly concentrated among 10 countries. Risk and perception This has been exacerbated by the high cost of borrowing, with African countries paying punitive risk premiums based on the perception of African risk. A 2023 UNDP study found that African nations pay about $75 billion in interest because of a perceived African risk premium. The South African presidency has identified the high cost of capital as a significant impediment to the continent's ability to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Expert panel member Urama told the launch of the body, "African countries pay about 500 percent more in loan interests when they borrow from the global capital markets compared to when they borrow from Multilateral Development Banks such as the African Development Bank Group or the World Bank." "Debt service costs in Africa could reach $89 billion in 2025, diverting resources away from investments in education, health and other productive sectors," he said. Dr Patrick Njoroge, former Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya and a member of the panel said, "Africa is no longer arriving late to the temple of global affairs, we're here now, and it's time our voice reshapes the agenda. This is not an African problem; it's a global system failure." He described Africa's current situation as a fundamental choice between servicing loans and investing in human development. "The worst debt crisis in a generation is not measured by debt-to-GDP, but by the crushing trade-off: interest payments over education, over health, over climate resilience," Njoroge said. The G20 in South Africa has established a Cost of Capital Commission to investigate the structural issues that lead to these high borrowing costs of low- and middle-income countries and provide actionable recommendations for G20 leaders. The South African efforts complement the work done in setting up a continental Africa Credit Rating Agency, developed by the African Union and its partners, to provide more accurate risk assessments than their international counterparts. The agency will be launched in 2026. The fear of a knock-on effect of sovereign debt defaults in Africa on other vulnerable countries is growing, particularly from 2024 onwards when significant capital repayments are due on numerous international bonds. Loan defaults reached the highest record in three decades. The Africa Expert Panel has explored strategies that advance Africa's collective interests through increased voice, effective representation, and the achievement of a reformed and all-inclusive global economic policy. South Africa recognises that the Common Framework needs to be improved and has examined lessons learned from past processes. The G20 highlighted the importance of enhancing debt transparency from all stakeholders, including private creditors, who are now part of the complex tapestry of debt. There are efforts to provide a platform for countries to share experiences and solutions. During 2025, South Africa held a side event, co-hosted with the African Development Bank, to reflect the voices of borrower countries on debt in the G20. Fourteen countries shared their perspectives on debt sustainability. An outcome document was drafted to capture their recommendations. The Africa Expert Panel is due to produce a report on the debt problem and other issues affecting Africa for the upcoming G20 Johannesburg Summit in November. It is expected to provide a toolbox on the choices, instruments and resources required to achieve better outcomes and consider what is needed for a global sustainable-finance architecture.

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  South Africa's G20 Ubuntu legacy for Africa

  by Dianna Games on November 7, 2025

  Infrastructure development in Africa has been given a major boost with the launch of the Ubuntu Initiative, a legacy G20 project that aims to transform project delivery across the continent. The innovative initiative, rooted in the African philosophy of Ubuntu ("I am because you are"), sets out an Africa-led framework to translate the G20 Toolkit for Cross-Border Infrastructure into a programme of action. It is one of South Africa's pivotal contributions to drive intra-African trade and investment under the G20 Infrastructure Working Group, chaired by the National Treasury, which also acts as the co-chair of the G20 Finance Track. This initiative serves as a platform for African governments and global partners to collaborate, share expertise, and unblock institutional hurdles to implement transformative projects, building on the G20's infrastructure framework. The toolkit aims to practically assist countries and regions overcome the major barriers to planning, financing, implementing and managing cross-border infrastructure. It was jointly developed by the African Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the World Bank. Key elements include a revised pipeline for bankable, cross-border projects, tools to tackle institutional and regulatory bottlenecks, and an emphasis on innovative de-risking instruments, and measures to attract private capital. The initiative also aims to integrate and scale instruments that are already in place and designed to bolster delivery. These include the NEPAD Infrastructure Projects Preparation Facility Special Fund and the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA) to bolster cross-border infrastructure across Africa. The NEPAD special fund is a multi-donor fund, hosted by the AfDB, that provides grants to African countries to prepare regional infrastructure projects in areas like energy, transport, ICT, and trans-boundary water. Its primary goal is to address the lack of investment-ready projects by funding preparatory studies and activities, with the aim of attracting downstream public and private investment for projects. The ICA is not a funding agency but an organisation that aims to catalyse and facilitate the financing of regional projects and programmes and overcoming technical and political challenges to building more infrastructure. A Call to Partnership Participants at the launch of the Ubuntu Initiative in the third quarter of 2025 included senior officials from 15 different countries, the African Union Commission, eight recognised AU regional bodies, and the African Union Development Agency - New Partnership for Africa's Development (AUDA-NEPAD). "The Ubuntu Initiative is at once a statement of agency and a call to partnership," said the National Treasury in a statement. "It signals that Africa is leading and shaping its regional infrastructure and development agenda, presenting a coordinated, bankable pipeline of projects that turn vision into tangible development outcomes." The initiative rests on four foundational pillars, each designed to confront the continent's enduring challenges of infrastructure development: Data: Updating Africa's cross-border infrastructure gap, particularly in light of the shifting landscape following the COVID-19 pandemic. The initiative aims to provide accurate, current information, essential for guiding evidence-based decisions regarding infrastructural investments. Pipeline Generation: By identifying transformative cross-border projects that warrant prioritisation and financial structuring, this pillar seeks to create a trustworthy and investable project pipeline capable of attracting private financing. Governance Concilium: This aims to enhance governance and capacity support through an expert advisory platform, designed to deliver comprehensive capacity-building assistance and ensure that resources are appropriately allocated and efficiently managed. Innovative Financing: The initiative emphasises the acceleration of project implementation via innovative financing models, including public-private partnerships and infrastructure bonds. Multilateral Development Banks are crucial in mitigating risks and rallying private sector investment. The high-level focus on infrastructure underlines South Africa's commitment to making its G20 presidency work for the continent more broadly, by setting up legacy programmes that will outlive its one-year hosting of the initiative. It is also part of its stated aim to give Africa greater visibility and voice in the global environment to counter years of marginalisation by many other regions.

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  Job creation tops agenda for African youth at G20

  on November 7, 2025

  Youth20 (Y20), one of 13 official engagement groups involved in the policy formulation process during G20 meetings, has its work cut out at the upcoming summit in South Africa. The group, which is composed of young delegates aged 18-30 from G20 member countries, will convene in the City of Ekurhuleni in Gauteng, 38km east of Johannesburg, to thrash out an agenda touching on priorities ranging from jobs and skills to climate justice and inclusive growth. This year, the Y20's work is centred around five thematic areas, each reflecting the aspirations of young people around the world and aligned with South Africa's G20 presidency priorities. They include: Climate change and environmental sustainability; Inclusive economic growth and employment; AI, digital innovation, education, and the future of work; Meaningful youth engagement in global governance and decision-making; and inclusive social development and fighting inequality. Each theme will be steered by a dedicated working group. Tackling youth unemployment For many delegates representing African countries at Y20, issues of employment, skills and inclusive growth remain the most pertinent. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), between 10 and 12 million young Africans enter the labour market each year, yet only about 3 million formal jobs are created on the continent annually. South Africa, the summit host, underscores the scale of the crisis. Youth unemployment there remains among the highest in the world, with more than 60% of young people out of work. In addition to young people who are out of work, multitudes are engaged in informal jobs that fail to deliver the same security or quality of life that conventional formal jobs would. The AfDB estimates that in low- and lower-middle income African countries, just 10-15% of employed youth secure wage employment. The majority try their luck in informal jobs, which often means infrequent pay, limited to no benefits, poor chances of upward mobility, and the constrained ability to budget, save and create wealth. Informal jobs, the Mo Ibrahim Foundation notes, "are the default rather than the exception" for many employed youth in Africa. "Due to a lack of formal jobs and social safety nets, many young Africans have to find an alternative in the informal sector in order to get by; getting trapped in a precarious employment status which contributes to a delayed transition to adulthood ('waithood'). This results in a negative outlook when it comes to living standards and financial independence," the Foundation notes. Africa is the world's youngest continent, with a median age of just 19.3 years and over 60% of its population under 25, according to UN estimates. Moreover, Africa's population is projected to grow rapidly from 1.55bn in 2025 to 2.5bn in 2050, when one in every four people on earth will be African. This demographic shift presents both a historic opportunity and a potential risk. Without sufficient jobs for its youth, Africa will have to contend with poorer living conditions for large swathes of its population, increased migration out of Africa, social conditions that foment conflict and instability - among other adverse economic, social and political consequences. "Over the past 12 months we have watched with concern as young people protest in Kenya, Morocco and Madagascar. They are rightly asking for access to decent jobs and decent lives," says Mona Idrissue, the head of Youth Employment and Skill at African Centre for Economic Transformation (ACET). TVETs offer quickest path out of crisis Idrissu argues that African governments must prioritise investments in technical and vocational education and training institutes (TVETS) to equip young Africans with employable skills. This, she argues, requires fiscal reform to ensure that governments can free up resources for social investments in education - as opposed to the present situation where many governments allocate more resources to debt servicing and a miniscule share to skills development. "Without fiscal space, governments cannot invest in the systems that create opportunities such as skills development. At ACET our call is clear: governments must invest in inclusive TVET and the private sector must engage in shaping the curriculum to ensure the training young people receive will be useful in current and future job markets," she notes. According to a recent research report authored by Idrissu and Habtamu Edjigu, an economist at ACET, Ghana allocates just 2% of its education budget to TVET, while Ethiopia spends less than 10%. These funding gaps have stifled investment in infrastructure, teacher training, and curriculum modernization. In Rwanda, 93% of students surveyed cited outdated equipment and inadequate facilities as major barriers to effective learning. Beyond budgetary constraints, stigma continues to undermine uptake, the study found. TVET is widely perceived as a "last resort" compared to academic pathways, limiting its appeal among youth and parents alike. It's the place to go if you couldn't get into college, which should not be the case. "TVET systems in Africa, despite diverse national contexts, face common, deep-rooted challenges that limit their effectiveness--chronic underfunding, a shortage of instructors, inadequate professional development, poor infrastructure, and weak alignment between training and labor market needs, to name a few," the report notes.

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  Fintech CashPlus plots $82m IPO on Moroccan exchange

  by Harry Clynch on November 7, 2025

  Moroccan fintech CashPlus has secured approval to list on the Casablanca Stock Exchange in a planned 750m dirham ($82m) initial public offering, in a move that one analyst says demonstrates the North African country's capital markets are "broadening and deepening." CashPlus - which has approximately two million daily users in Morocco and net profits last year of $23.5m - will float 3.8 million shares priced at 200 dirhams ($22) each in a sale that represents a 15.5% stake of the company. The offers a range of services including money transfers, bill and tax payments, currency exchange, and parcel delivery through a network of physical branches and a mobile app. The bulk of the share offering will be reserved for institutional investors and high-net worth individuals buying a minimum of 15,000 shares each, with 38% allocated to the general public with no minimum requirements. Just over 5% will be offered to company employees at a discounted price of 160 dirhams. Listings boost for exchange The listing comes at a time when the Moroccan government and regulators are working to boost the country's capital markets in order to attract more foreign capital to the country. Current activity on the Casablanca Stock Exchange remains relatively limited, with an average of two or three listings per year. In a bid to rectify this, Morocco, in collaboration with international partners such as the World Bank, has implemented structural reforms to modernise the exchange. The country is also finalising plans to introduce a derivatives market, which would allow investors to trade and manage risk more efficiently, and has introduced a range of new financial instruments such as sukuks and green bonds to broaden financing options. Raef Kawar, a partner at Rabat-based investment banking firm EuraBridge, tells African Business that "Morocco has understood that to be able to attract more capital, we need to have the standards that potential investors are looking for." "This is something that is fundamental if you want the Casablanca Stock Exchange to grow and to pave the way for more companies to list," he says. "Previously foreign investors did not see Morocco as a target for public or private financial investments." "People were often cautious of investing in Morocco, perhaps because the regulations were perceived as not being up to the standards needed to protect international firms and so on. But particularly since the recent reforms, we are having more and more conversations with people interested in investing." Kawar points out that the 2022 IPO of Akdital, a Moroccan private hospital operator, was 3.77 times oversubscribed - whereas this year's listing of healthtech firm Groupe Vicenne was 64 times oversubscribed. "You can see the evolution over the last three years," he says. Momentum building The CashPlus listing - which is also significant in being the first listing of a non-bank financial institution in Morocco - is likely to provide a further boost to a market in which economic momentum is building. The run up to the 2030 World Cup has prompted a flurry of major infrastructure projects and investment drives, while the Moroccan All Shares Index (MASI), which has strengthened by more than 30% in the last twelve months. Kawar says that "every successful listing broadens and deepens Casablanca's market. It builds trust and also attracts new local and international investors - providing evidence that listing on the Moroccan stock exchange can bring substantial returns." "The CashPlus IPO will hopefully continue this trend, unlocking more and more confidence."

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  A letter to leaders in Belém and to the COP30 Presidency from the Special Envoys for Strategic Regions

  by African Business on November 7, 2025

  We, the Special Envoys for our respective regions, wish to express our strong support for the Brazilian Presidency and all leaders committed to climate action at Belém. COP30 presents both a significant opportunity and a profound challenge. To remain aligned with the ambition of the Paris Agreement amidst an increasingly complex geopolitical environment, we must demonstrate decisive progress. Multilateralism, grounded in international law and guided by the Paris Agreement, remains our most effective framework. A clear signal from COP30 that the international community stands united in its determination to confront climate change will resonate globally. Our shared commitment to fully implement the Paris Agreement is the strongest collective response to a crisis that is disproportionately affecting vulnerable households and countries, devastating lives, livelihoods, and the ecosystems upon which we all depend. We should also recognize the progress achieved since the Paris Agreement in 2015. The rapid growth of clean solutions is bending the trajectory of global emissions; where we had been on track to exceed a devastating temperature increase of more than 4°C, we are now able to project a level of less than 2.5°C. But we need greater progress. We are not on track to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, and in particular, we are taking insufficient action to keep 1.5°C within reach, or even enough to keep warming well below 2°C. And every tenth of a degree of additional warming will mean harsh consequences for the world. COP30 must acknowledge and address the "triple gap" in mitigation, adaptation and finance. Doing so requires an accelerated effort across the next decade, mobilizing the full range of tools, resources, and partnerships available to us. This is at the heart of the goal of COP30: to advance the full implementation of both the Paris Agreement and the UAE Consensus, informed by the Global Stocktake presented at COP28 in Dubai. To accelerate progress, we must maintain a laser focus on concrete, coordinated action. The Action Agenda is a powerful reservoir of those actions, which must be structured, monitored, and supported for effective delivery. Addressing the gap should not be understood solely as revising Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), but rather as translating ambition into policies that enable each country to overperform on its existing commitments. And the policies we take, as has been amply demonstrated in our successes to date, can marry not only climate benefits, but also contribute to growing our economies, promote our national security, improve the welfare of our citizens, and promote a healthy environment. Tripling global renewable energy capacity is a goal within reach. Collectively, we have the technology and resources: what is required now is scaled investment in all regions. The Baku to Belém roadmap to mobilize USD 1.3 trillion annually for developing countries outlines both established and innovative solutions to deliver investment at scale at reduced costs of finance. To operationalize it, clear milestones, mandates, and responsibilities are needed. Ministers of finance should take the lead in defining the priorities. Creating fiscal space, minimizing debt burdens, effectively mobilizing domestic and international finance, and ensuring enabling policy environments, alongside increased investment in the Global South, are all essential to making this roadmap credible and implementable. Strengthening resilience and adaptation are equally critical. Climate impacts are increasingly a major barrier to sustainable economic and social development. We must work together to define the indicators that do not impose resource-intensive reporting burdens but instead help our economies and societies adapt to their local circumstances and become resilient. We must engage the insurance sector, central banks, and private investors to close the protection gap that threatens long-term developmental gains. Countries pursuing the transition away from fossil fuels should define roadmaps, in line with their national circumstances, while fostering dialogue between producers and buyers of fossil fuels. Roadmaps to end deforestation and restore ecosystems are equally necessary. Taken together, these pathways can allow countries to implement the long-term strategies submitted in previous years. For the first time, COP30 will also confront the challenge of climate disinformation: a growing threat that undermines public trust and policy implementation. Combatting this challenge requires coordinated approaches, shared strategies, and strengthened regulatory cooperation. We must shine the spotlight on our collective progress, in general, but also cases in particular where countries have met their climate targets ahead of schedule, demonstrating a positive bias for action. Lastly, we need an evolution of the climate regime that makes implementation more effective and inclusive. Progress depends on joining forces with the local authorities, economic sectors, governments, and civil society. Subnational leaders, from governors, to regional authorities, mayors, and community representatives, must be empowered to reinforce and complement NDCs and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). COP30 is the moment to have them at the table and to craft a new approach that brings all relevant actors together in a global effort to safeguard our common future. It is the moment to remind ourselves of the need for solidarity, and to recognise our agency - we have it within our power to change the future for the better. Adnan Z. Amin (Special Envoy for Middle East), Chair, World Energy Council; CEO of COP28; Former Director-General, International Renewable Energy Agency Arunabha Ghosh (Special Envoy for South Asia), Founder-CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water Carlos Lopes (Special Envoy for Africa), Chair, Africa Climate Foundation; Former Executive Secretary, UN Economic Commission for Africa Jacinda Ardern (Special Envoy for Oceania), Former Prime Minister of New Zealand Jonathan Pershing (Special Envoy for North America), Former U.S. Special Envoy for Climate Change Laurence Tubiana (Special Envoy for Europe), Dean, Paris Climate School; CEO, European Climate Foundation; Former French Special Envoy for Climate Change Patricia Espinosa (Special Envoy for Latin America and the Caribbean), Former Executive Secretary, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

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  G20 on African soil: Can South Africa deliver a fairer deal for Africa?

  by Lennox Yieke on November 7, 2025

  As delegates gather in Johannesburg later this month for the G20 Summit, the pressing question for Africa is whether its leaders will seize the moment to embed African priorities into global decision-making. The African Union (AU) joined the G20 as the 21st member at the 2023 summit in India and was officially represented at the 2024 summit in Brazil. With this year's summit taking place on African soil for the first time, expectations are building that Africa finally has a chance to negotiate for a fairer deal on critical issues like debt relief, climate finance and inclusive growth. South Africa's G20 presidency is advancing an ambitious agenda aimed at tackling some of the continent's most entrenched economic challenges. Key elements of its agenda include strengthening disaster resilience through faster response and reconstruction, advancing debt sustainability for low-income countries, lowering borrowing costs for African sovereigns, and unlocking climate finance for a just energy transition. South Africa is also championing the strategic use of Africa's vast critical minerals reserves-including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths-as catalysts for industrialisation and job creation. The aim is to accelerate the continent's transition from raw material exporter to value-added producer. On issues such as global financial reform, there is broad support for the measures proposed by South Africa from countries in the "global south". A case in point is the proposed "Cost of Capital Commission", a flagship proposal that has been warmly received by many developing nations reeling under the weight of costly debt. If formally established, the commission will produce a comprehensive expert review of the factors driving up the cost of capital for developing economies. It will also recommend reforms that could expand fiscal space and improve debt sustainability. Some ideas that are already gaining ground include proposed amendments to credit rating methodologies, prudential regulations, and the data sets used by credit analysts. "Within the G20, South Africa would likely find support from critical members, including Brazil, India, and Indonesia, given the priority these governments placed on these issues during their previous G20 presidencies. It also would find support within the African Union, which now has a permanent seat at the G20 table and could play a critical bridging role between G7 and BRICS members of the grouping," says David McNair, executive director at The ONE Campaign. The cost of facing up to the US However, on other issues such as climate change and inclusive growth, there are fears that progress may be slower than hoped given the US's hostile stance on these matters. Under President Donald Trump, Washington has withdrawn support for climate financing and other initiatives it lambasts as "woke", including efforts to promote gender equity and address wealth inequality. This has, however, not stopped South Africa from vigorously advocating on these issues. During his speech at the G20 finance ministers' meeting in February, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa argued that closing the large inequality gap between developing and developed countries would create a more prosperous world. "As the G20 we need deliberate and coordinated efforts to focus on inclusive growth based on responsive trade and investment to grow the incomes of the poor nations and poorest in society and this we should do in our own selfish interests," Ramaphosa said. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, has nonetheless dismissed South Africa's agenda as being "anti-American" and criticised the summit's theme 'solidarity, equality & sustainability" for being a poorly camouflaged rendition of 'diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI)', which the Trump administration has railed against. "South Africa is doing very bad things... Using G20 to promote 'solidarity, equality, & sustainability'. In other words: DEI and climate change." he posted on X (formerly Twitter) in February. Relations between the US and South Africa have deteriorated under Trump, who in August imposed a 30% tariff on South African exports, the highest for an African country. This move has dealt a heavy blow to key sectors like agriculture, mining, manufacturing and logistics. The US has also frozen aid to South Africa, in addition to other hostile measures. Analysts are now questioning how South Africa can drive its agenda forward at the G20 without the support of high-level US representatives, who have pledged not to attend certain meetings. Focus on what's attainable Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA), believes that South Africa must focus on what the forum can achieve without the US. She says there are areas where progress can be made, and areas where the US absence will be much more keenly felt. "Certain reforms to the IMF and World Bank, where the US has veto power, and also the World Trade Organization trade dispute settlement system, are areas where we can't expect progress at the moment," she says. Some experts have argued that South Africa's strong ties to powers like China and Russia could help balance outcomes and shore up support for some of its proposals. Its founder role in the expanded BRICS grouping, which now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, UAE and Iran, has also been highlighted as a potential diplomatic strength. Still, without US support, consensus and progress on key issues is likely to remain elusive. "It is important to recognise how crucial the US is to the world economy - that is going to complicate any response," says Menzi Ndhlovu, senior country risk analyst at the Signal Risk consultancy in Johannesburg "As much as Global South countries are plotting in the background, they are also trying to appease Trump as much as possible. It is a very, very fine balance." G20's changing focus For Sidiropoulos, the AU's ascension to the G20 and South Africa's current presidency is a broader sign of the G20's changing focus. The summit is no longer just about finance, but about development and the reforms needed to accelerate it in the global south, a region that accounts for 88% of the world's population. "Finance has been at the heart of the G20 since it was only a finance ministers' meeting. However, over the years, it has become clear that finance, without a focus on developmental outcomes, will not provide the necessary societal results" she argues. "The G20 Global South presidencies have tried to refocus the group in that direction. South Africa's presidency has also aimed to ensure strong outcomes for key African priorities. In the current geopolitical uncertainty, not least concerning whether the G20 itself can remain relevant, South Africa's agenda has attempted to tackle some of the most pressing global issues, which disproportionately affect Africa, " she says.